Too-Soon Notes on the NJ Nail-Biter
As I Write, the Final Tally Hangs in the Balance, Thanks to Still-Bubbling Anger on the Right
Phil Murphy leads Jack Ciattarelli by barely 7,200 votes as I write this (the results are shifting), a shocking statement in a state that has grown bluer over the last few decades. Murphy is a Democrat, an incumbent whose job approval rating has remained in the black.
An Eagleton Poll released today, which was based on residents surveyed in late October, found that 50% of the state approved of the overall job Murphy had done, giving him high marks on the state’s response to the pandemic and failing grades for his handling of taxes.
While his approval numbers have fallen some over the course of the year, he appeared headed for a close but comfortable victory.
Then came the actual vote. As Ciattarelli, a former Assemmblyman, pointed out, the only poll that counts is the one tallied after all the votes are in. And the votes, especially in traditionally Republican areas, did not match the polls.
The question is why. It’s too early to truly understand the dynamics at play, but Republican enthusiasm definitely seemed to be a factor. The numbers in two Republican counties were up significantly. Murphy received 43% of the 180,957 votes cast in Monmouth County four years ago, but only 38% of the nearly 210,000 cast this year (according to The New York Times). In Ocean, there was a 30-plus-point increase in turnout — 208,020 voters cast ballots, compared with about 154,000 in 2017. Murphy won just 31% of the vote this year, down from 36 % four years ago. The two Shore counties so far account for an approximately 60,000 net vote for the Republican.
Blue counties like Bergen and Middlesex stayed in Democratic column, but by smaller margins than in the past, undercutting what the political consultants call the Democratic firewall. Still, these are just numbers. They don’t explain why this shift occurred, and I am not sure we will fully understand this for a while.
My guess is that Republicans were angrier and more motivated to go out and vote. Murphy, for them, was the face of tyranny. His aggressive efforts to get the state vaccinated and his closure of businesses early on were part of a larger Democratic push nationally that included vaccine and mask mandates for public workers. This generated a backlash that, while not on a level with what we saw in Michigan and across the Midwest and South, was still potent — especially when combined with Ciattarelli’s focus on rising property taxes and an add produced by Republicans that made Murphy seem elitist and out of touch. (The ad used Murphy’s own words, edited to fit the GOP narrative, and stripped of context make the case that Murphy cared little about rising taxes.)
I will be honest. I misconstrued the anger as an outlier, a vestige of Trumpism in a state that rejected Donald Trump twice by wide margins. I saw it as coming from the margins and I fully expected Murphy to hit 55%. My wife, however, kept pointing to comments on social media, comments that were growing in number and anger as Election Day approached. It is the same mistake I made in 2016, when Trump surprised all of us and won the presidency.
We live in a deeply divide nation, riven along race, gender, and class lines. Conservative politicians and media companies like Fox News and the growing cadre of more extreme outlets are stoking these divisions, building their audiences and power on a base of resentment. So much of the liberty/tyranny rhetoric grows from this poisoned well.
I don’t know if these resentments and this anger are what made this race so close. But circumstantial evidence certainly points in that direction, and Democrats need to understand this as they move forward or they will have their slim Congressional majorities turned into major deficits.
Joe Biden’s approval rating is among the lowest for any president at this point in his first term. Moderates are holding the Democrats’ agenda hostage, and the press has cast a difficult ideological debate as party infighting, allowing the Republicans to sit on the sidelines, despite their playing a huge role in the failures of the federal government to address the issues that need to be addressed.
Murphy seems likely to pull this election out, but not without losses in the Assembly and Senate. His majority will be smaller, but he will be able to function. Biden is likely to face a different reality.